We study the problem of online decision-making with predictions.

Computational Social Science (CSS) is an emerging field driven by the unprecedented availability of human-generated content for researchers. This field, however, presents a unique set of challenges due to the nature of the theories and datasets it explores, including highly subjective tasks and complex, unstructured textual corpora. Among these challenges, one of the less well-studied topics is the pervasive presence of noise. This thesis aims to address this gap in the literature by presenting a series of interconnected case studies that examine different manifestations of noise in CSS. These include character-level errors following the OCR processing of historical records, archaic language, inconsistencies in annotations for subjective and ambiguous tasks, and even noise and biases introduced by large language models during content generation. This thesis challenges the conventional notion that noise in CSS is inherently harmful or useless. Rather, it argues that certain forms of noise can encode meaningful information that is invaluable for advancing CSS research, such as the unique communication styles of individuals or the culture-dependent nature of datasets and tasks. Further, this thesis highlights the importance of nuance in dealing with noise and the considerations CSS researchers must address when encountering it, demonstrating that different types of noise require distinct strategies.

Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, we collected ~179 million power outage records at 15-minute intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15% of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties, counties with interconnected grids, and states with high solar generation exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.

We introduce SeaSplat, a method to enable real-time rendering of underwater scenes leveraging recent advances in 3D radiance fields. Underwater scenes are challenging visual environments, as rendering through a medium such as water introduces both range and color dependent effects on image capture. We constrain 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS), a recent advance in radiance fields enabling rapid training and real-time rendering of full 3D scenes, with a physically grounded underwater image formation model. Applying SeaSplat to the real-world scenes from SeaThru-NeRF dataset, a scene collected by an underwater vehicle in the US Virgin Islands, and simulation-degraded real-world scenes, not only do we see increased quantitative performance on rendering novel viewpoints from the scene with the medium present, but are also able to recover the underlying true color of the scene and restore renders to be without the presence of the intervening medium. We show that the underwater image formation helps learn scene structure, with better depth maps, as well as show that our improvements maintain the significant computational improvements afforded by leveraging a 3D Gaussian representation.

The escalating frequency and severity of natural disasters, exacerbated by climate change, underscore the critical role of insurance in facilitating recovery and promoting investments in risk reduction. This work introduces a novel Adaptive Robust Optimization (ARO) framework tailored for the calculation of catastrophe insurance premiums, with a case study applied to the United States National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time an ARO approach has been applied to for disaster insurance pricing. Our methodology is designed to protect against both historical and emerging risks, the latter predicted by machine learning models, thus directly incorporating amplified risks induced by climate change. Using the US flood insurance data as a case study, optimization models demonstrate effectiveness in covering losses and produce surpluses, with a smooth balance transition through parameter fine-tuning. Among tested optimization models, results show ARO models with conservative parameter values achieving low number of insolvent states with the least insurance premium charged. Overall, optimization frameworks offer versatility and generalizability, making it adaptable to a variety of natural disaster scenarios, such as wildfires, droughts, etc. This work not only advances the field of insurance premium modeling but also serves as a vital tool for policymakers and stakeholders in building resilience to the growing risks of natural catastrophes.

Gender bias represents a form of systematic negative treatment that targets individuals based on their gender. This discrimination can range from subtle sexist remarks and gendered stereotypes to outright hate speech. Prior research has revealed that ignoring online abuse not only affects the individuals targeted but also has broader societal implications. These consequences extend to the discouragement of women's engagement and visibility within public spheres, thereby reinforcing gender inequality. This thesis investigates the nuances of how gender bias is expressed through language and within language technologies. Significantly, this thesis expands research on gender bias to multilingual contexts, emphasising the importance of a multilingual and multicultural perspective in understanding societal biases. In this thesis, I adopt an interdisciplinary approach, bridging natural language processing with other disciplines such as political science and history, to probe gender bias in natural language and language models.

We present the Streaming Gaussian Dirichlet Random Field (S-GDRF) model, a novel approach for modeling a stream of spatiotemporally distributed, sparse, high-dimensional categorical observations. The proposed approach efficiently learns global and local patterns in spatiotemporal data, allowing for fast inference and querying with a bounded time complexity. Using a high-resolution data series of plankton images classified with a neural network, we demonstrate the ability of the approach to make more accurate predictions compared to a Variational Gaussian Process (VGP), and to learn a predictive distribution of observations from streaming categorical data. S-GDRFs open the door to enabling efficient informative path planning over high-dimensional categorical observations, which until now has not been feasible.

The digitisation of historical documents has provided historians with unprecedented research opportunities. Yet, the conventional approach to analysing historical documents involves converting them from images to text using OCR, a process that overlooks the potential benefits of treating them as images and introduces high levels of noise. To bridge this gap, we take advantage of recent advancements in pixel-based language models trained to reconstruct masked patches of pixels instead of predicting token distributions. Due to the scarcity of real historical scans, we propose a novel method for generating synthetic scans to resemble real historical documents. We then pre-train our model, PHD, on a combination of synthetic scans and real historical newspapers from the 1700-1900 period. Through our experiments, we demonstrate that PHD exhibits high proficiency in reconstructing masked image patches and provide evidence of our model's noteworthy language understanding capabilities. Notably, we successfully apply our model to a historical QA task, highlighting its usefulness in this domain.

Data-driven analyses of biases in historical texts can help illuminate the origin and development of biases prevailing in modern society. However, digitised historical documents pose a challenge for NLP practitioners as these corpora suffer from errors introduced by optical character recognition (OCR) and are written in an archaic language. In this paper, we investigate the continuities and transformations of bias in historical newspapers published in the Caribbean during the colonial era (18th to 19th centuries). Our analyses are performed along the axes of gender, race, and their intersection. We examine these biases by conducting a temporal study in which we measure the development of lexical associations using distributional semantics models and word embeddings. Further, we evaluate the effectiveness of techniques designed to process OCR-generated data and assess their stability when trained on and applied to the noisy historical newspapers. We find that there is a trade-off between the stability of the word embeddings and their compatibility with the historical dataset. We provide evidence that gender and racial biases are interdependent, and their intersection triggers distinct effects. These findings align with the theory of intersectionality, which stresses that biases affecting people with multiple marginalised identities compound to more than the sum of their constituents.